My picks for what will (and should) triumph at tomorrow night’s Oscar ceremony.  Now updated with actual winners.


Well…hopefully nobody out there actually took my predictions seriously, because I was entirely off my game last night, calling only 14 out of the 24 categories correctly.  Had I gone with my head and picked The Hurt Locker for Best Picture (an outcome I knew was 75% possible) I could have hit 15, but I still would have taken body blows on the short film categories, Hurt Locker‘s two sound wins and Precious upsetting Up in the Air for Best Adapted Screenplay.

Overall, I have to say that this is the best crop of winners we’ve had in some time.  Very happy for The Hurt Locker‘s success, three out of the four honored performers (even her very gracious acceptance speech can’t change the fact that Sandra Bullock should have lost to Gabourey Sidibe) and the dual awards for Up.  Since I haven’t seen the movie that won the Best Foreign Film Oscar, I can’t tell you for certain that The White Ribbon was robbed, but El Secreto De Sus Ojos has a lot to live up to.

As for there ceremony, it was largely a belly flop.  The two hosts are funny men in their own right, but seemed oddly muted and subdued here.  I was disappointed that their opening monologue essentially consisted of the two of them pointing at people in the audience and cracking a gag at their expense.  It might have been okay if the jokes were actually funny, but most of the material was so tired–I mean, a Woody Harrelson pot joke?  Really?  That punchline would have been tired in 2000, let alone 2010.  The pace was off throughout the evening, as presenters fumbled their cues, poorly conceived montages (like that stupid tribute to classic horror movies like, you know, Edward Scissorhands) ran long and the world ground to a halt so ten actors could tell ten other actors how awesome they were in that movie they were in together.  (Props to Colin Farrell to name-checking S.W.A.T. though–you could see Jeremy Renner thinking “Wait, I was in S.W.A.T.?”)  All the ads for Oscar night promised “You’ve never seen Oscar like this.”  What they meant to say was “You’ve never seen Oscar like this…since the late ’90s when the ceremony was always this dull.”

Best Picture
Will Win: Avatar
Should Win: A Serious Man
Did Win: The Hurt Locker

Best Director
Will and Should Win: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker

Best Actor
Will and Should Win: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart

Best Actress
Will Win: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Should Win: Gabourey Sidibe, Precious

Best Supporting Actor
Will and Should Win: Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Basterds

Best Supporting Actress
Will and Should Win: Mo’Nique, Precious

Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker
Should Win: Joel and Ethan Coen, A Serious Man

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air
Should Win: Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci and Tony Roche, In the Loop
Did Win: Geoffrey Fletcher, Precious

Best Foreign Language Film
Will and Should Win: The White Ribbon
Did Win: El Secreto De Sus Ojos

Best Documentary Feature
Will Win: The Cove
Should Win: Burma VJ

Best Animated Feature
Will and Should Win: Up

Best Art Direction
Will Win: Avatar
Should Win: Sherlock Holmes

Best Cinematography
Will Win: The Hurt Locker
Should Win: The White Ribbon
Did Win: Avatar

Best Costume Design
Will Win: Nine
Should Win: Bright Star
Did Win: The Young Victoria

Best Film Editing
Will Win and Should Win: The Hurt Locker

Best Makeup
Will and Should Win: Star Trek

Best Music Score
Will Win and Should Win: Up

Best Original Song
Will and Should Win: “The Weary Kind,” Crazy Heart

Best Sound Editing
Will and Should Win: Avatar
Did Win: The Hurt Locker

Best Sound Mixing
Will and Should Win: Avatar
Did Win: The Hurt Locker

Best Visual Effects
Will and Should Win: Avatar

Best Documentary Short Subject
Will Win: The Last Truck
Should Win: N/A
Did Win: “Music by Prudence”

Best Animated Short
Will Win: “A Matter of Loaf and Death”
Should Win: N/A
Did Win: “Logorama”

Best Live-Action Short
Will Win: “Kavi”
Should Win: N/A
Did Win: “The New Tenants”