Due to a variety of circumstances, NYCFilmCritic’s annual Oscar Talk back-and-forth took a year off, but I’ll still be tuning in to the Academy Awards this Sunday night to see how Hollywood divvies up this year’s bounty of little gold men.  In many ways, it’ll be a relief to have the Oscars over and done with–most of the big races appear to be set in stone and have been that way at least since mid-January.  That said, there’s still the potential for an upset or two.  My own predictions are below.  Check back on Monday* to see how I fared–here’s hoping I top my last year’s personal worst of 14 out of 24.

*Updated: Well, I definitely succeeded in topping last year’s poor showing.  Unfortunately it was with an even poorer showing–I struck out big time, only calling 9 out of 24 races correctly.  What can I say?  I got blindsided by the Alice in Wonderland juggernaut early on (namely because I actually saw the movie and had no idea why anyone would nominate it for anything) and never recovered.  About the only thing I did right was sticking with Inception for most of the technical awards and The Fighter duo of Christian Bale and Melissa Leo in the Supporting Actor categories.  Otherwise…yikes.  Nothing but net across the board.  Well, congrats to all the winners (yes, even you King’s Speech–you weren’t my favorite film of the lot, but you’re certainly no Crash or Gladiator) and here’s hoping I do better next year.  I mean, I couldn’t possibly do worse, right?  (Don’t answer that.)

Picture
Will Win: The King’s Speech
Should Win: The Social Network
Did Win: The King’s Speech

Director
Will Win: David Fincher
Should Win: David Fincher
Did Win: Tom Hooper

Actor
Will Win: Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)
Should Win: James Franco (127 Hours)
Did Win: Colin Firth

Actress
Will Win: Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)
Should Win: Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)
Did Win: Natalie Portman

Supporting Actress
Will Win: Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
Should Win: Amy Adams (The Fighter)
Did Win: Melissa Leo

Supporting Actor
Will Win: Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Should Win: Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Did Win: Christian Bale

Original Screenplay
Will Win: Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg (The Kids are All Right)
Should Win: Christopher Nolan (Inception)
Did Win: The King’s Speech

Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Aaron Sorkin (The Social Network)
Should Win: Joel and Ethan Coen (True Grit)
Will Win: The Social Network

Animated Feature
Will Win: Toy Story 3
Should Win: The Illusionist
Did Win: Toy Story 3

Documentary
Will Win: Restrepo
Should Win: Exit Through the Gift Shop
Did Win: Inside Job

Foreign Language Film
Will Win: Incendies
Should Win: I’ve only seen two of the five–Biutiful and Dogtooth–and I’d easily pick the latter over the former.  But one of the other three could prove superior.
Did Win: In A Better World

Art Direction
Will Win: The King’s Speech
Should Win: Inception
Did Win: Alice in Wonderland

Cinematography
Will Win: Roger Deakins (True Grit)
Should Win: Roger Deakins (True Grit)
Did Win: Inception

Costume Design
Will Win: I Am Love
Should Win: I Am Love
Did Win: Alice in Wonderland

Editing
Will Win: The King’s Speech
Should Win: The Social Network
Did Win: The Social Network

Makeup
Will Win: The Way Back
Should Win: The Way Back
Did Win: The Wolfman

Music (Original Score)
Will Win: The King’s Speech
Should Win: The Social Network
Did Win: The Social Network

Music (Original Song)
Will Win: Tangled
Should Win: Tangled
Did Win: Toy Story 3

Visual Effects
Will Win: Inception
Should Win: Inception
Did Win: Inception

Sound Editing
Will Win: Inception
Should Win: Inception
Did Win: Inception

Sound Mixing
Will Win: Inception
Should Win: Inception
Did Win: Inception

Short Film (Animated)
Will Win: The Lost Thing
Should Win: I loved the Pixar short Day & Night, but haven’t seen any of the others so no idea if it definitely deserves to win.
Did Win: The Lost Thing

Short Film (Live Action)
Will Win: Na Wewe
Should Win: N/A
Did Win: God of Love

Short Film (Documentary)
Will Win: The Warriors of Qiugang
Should Win: N/A
Did Win: Strangers No More

Oscar Talk 2010 continues with our takes on the Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress races.

Best Actress
Sandra Bullock: The Blind Side
Helen Mirren: The Last Station
Carey Mulligan: An Education
Gabourey Sidibe: Precious
Meryl Streep: Julie & Julia

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz: Nine
Vera Farmiga: Up in the Air
Maggie Gyllenhaal: Crazy Heart
Anna Kendrick: Up in the Air
Mo’Nique: Precious

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From: Nick
To: Ethan

Same story different sex…certainly in the Supporting Actress category.

If anyone is more of a lock than Christoph Waltz for Supporting Actor, it’s Mo’nique for Supporting Actress.  She has dominated every major Oscar precursor and there’s no reason to think it will be any different come Oscar night.  Also like Waltz, she deserves to win.  Her powerful performance in Precious is difficult to watch at times-there were moments when I literally had to turn away from the screen because what she was doing was so vile.  It’s about as ugly a role as one could have. While one sure way to Oscar gold is to take on an unglamorous role (think Charlize Theron in Monster), there are few actresses that would even allow themselves to be as unlikable as Mo’nique.  She throws herself into this performance with complete abandon and doesn’t ask for sympathy.  How often do you see an actress go this far for a character with virtually no redeeming qualities?  That alone is impressive.

Similar to the men’s acting races, I don’t have any real issues with the rest of the nominees, nor do I have much passion for them.  I’m happy to see Maggie Gyllenhaal in here because she does a good job with a bit of a thankless role in Crazy Heart, and because I’m all for anything that brings more attention to that film.  Both of the Up in the Air women do solid work, though I give the edge to Vera Farmiga who matches the charisma of Clooney and adds a spark to every scene they share together.  Penelope Cruz is probably the weak link for me.  She surprised me in Nine, showing a fun, playful, yet vulnerable character that I hadn’t seen from her before.  But it’s a pretty slight role in a film that was a bit of a mess.

But who to replace her?  Not many women come to mind.  I thought Diane Kruger was great in Inglourious Basterds, and I’d have no problem seeing her nominated, but was she that much better than Cruz?  I must be leaving someone out, or was this simply a weak year for supporting roles?

At least there’s a little bit of intrigue to the Best Actress race, which has come down to Meryl Streep in Julie & Julia, and, I’m still shocked to say this, Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side. What’s even more shocking is that Bullock has become the favorite.  Don’t get me wrong, I’m a big fan of hers and I’m thrilled that she’s having a career year (it’s because of her that last summer’s The Proposal, an otherwise by-the-numbers rom-com, was so much fun).  I also think she does very good work in Blind Side.  I might even be okay with giving her a nomination.  But neither the film nor the performance is worthy of an Oscar win.

Between the two, I’d have to vote for Streep who was able to portray the larger than life Julia Child as, well, larger than life, without stepping into campy impersonation.  It’s a fine line that she walks, but she does it successfully.  Among all five nominees, however, neither would get my vote.

I’ll let you weigh in on the Meryl/Sandra showdown before I tell you which of the other three leading ladies impressed me the most.

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From: Ethan
To: Nick

It’s funny–immediately after seeing Precious last August, I went directly to Twitter and dashed out the following tweet “Mo’nique is totally winning the Oscar this year for Precious.  Be prepared.”  Obviously I can’t take credit for being the first person to predict that since the movie–and her performance specifically–had been gathering raves since the movie premiered at Sundance in January ’09.  (And, of course, the second half of that tweet was “The movie is going to go over like gangbusters too” which didn’t exactly happen, so clearly my soothsayer abilities need work.)  Still, all the advanced word couldn’t prepare me for how completely she inhabits that role and how devastating her final monologue is when her mask falls and you see the broken, defeated woman behind the monster.  That scene is basically her version of Jennifer Hudson’s show-stopping “And I Am Telling You I’m Not Going'” performance from Dreamgirls, an aria of pain and hurt that cuts right to the bone.  (Unlike Hudson though, Mo’Nique is excellent throughout the movie, not just in one scene.)  The Best Supporting Actress statue has essentially been hers since the movie’s first Sundance screening and barring some kind of unexpected, improbable upset, we’ll see her on the podium come Oscar night.

To be honest, I’m not sure who I would choose as my backup vote amongst the four also-rans unlucky enough to go up against Mo’Nique.  I agree with you that Vera Farmiga delivers a better performance than Anna Kendrick in Up in the Air, although a lot of that is due to the fact that she’s been given better material to play.  I found Kendrick’s character to be one of the movie’s biggest flaws, particularly in the final act when she’s abruptly shunted offstage and handed a pat resolution.  As for Gyllenhaal, a second viewing of Crazy Heart helped me appreciate her performance more; she’s doing her best to make sense of a character that simply isn’t written very clearly on the page.  Still, at the end of the day, I think I’d cast my vote for Penelope Cruz in Nine.  I actually liked that film more than most people did–no question that it’s messy and flawed as a movie, but I felt like it replicated the glitz and glamour of the ’60s and of classic musicals quite nicely–and her performance stands out largely because she gets to perform one of the show’s most memorable numbers and overall gets to have more fun than her co-stars.  Of course, I can’t deny that there’s a slightly prurient reason for my admiration of her work in the movie–she’s absolutely stunning and her song-and-dance striptease routine gives her a chance to show of some very…um, memorable skills.

Over on the Best Actress side, I share your disappointment that Meryl Streep and Sandra Bullock have emerged as the front-runners.  As much as I’d like to try and separate the performance from the movie, my general distaste for The Blind Side makes it difficult for me to really admire Bullock’s work.  Likewise, Julie & Julia is such a slight, unmemorable film, I simply can’t fathom ranking Streep’s admittedly entertaining turn here with her best work.  Yes, she accomplishes the difficult task of playing Julia Childs without just imitating her for two hours, but the movie doesn’t challenge her to do anything beyond that.  I know this sounds crazy, but I’m still a bigger fan of her work in Mama Mia! That movie is a failure in many, many ways, but it challenged Streep to move out of her comfort zone and as a result she delivered arguably the loosest, zaniest and most purely enjoyable performance of her entire career.

My dream scenario for Oscar night would be for Bullock and Streep to cancel each other out with Precious‘ Gabourey Sidibe squeaking in for the win.  It’s always tricky knowing how to evaluate the work of a first-time actor, because you don’t have any point of reference for his or her skills and range, leading you to wonder how much of the performance was created in the editing room.  But having seen Sidibe in interviews and on the red carpet, it’s clear that she really is acting in Precious.  It would have been very easy for her and director Lee Daniels to portray the title character as a helpless object of pity, but the movie thankfully doesn’t let her off the hook that easily.  She’s a stubborn, frustrating and resourceful heroine and Sidibe captures all those complexities with an expertise many other, more established actresses probably wouldn’t have been able to pull off.

Up next, my thoughts on the final two Best Actress nominees–and who got overlooked.

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From: Nick
To: Ethan

I share at least part of your dream scenario for Best Actress.  I’d like to see Bullock and Streep split the vote and have someone else sneak in with the win.  But I have a hard time deciding which of the other actresses most deserve the upset.  A case can certainly be made for all three.

You’ve already made a convincing argument for Sidibe and I don’t disagree with your assessment.  But I can’t help thinking that she could be a one-hit wonder and that tempers my enthusiasm a bit.

I’m tempted to go with Carey Mulligan, playing a teen with a very different set of problems in An Education.  She completely carries that film.  She’s engaging, charming (without ever being cloying or annoying), smart and vulnerable.  Though not her first film, it’s her first major lead role and I do think she has terrific performances in her future.  But she is very young.  I’m not overwhelmed with the film itself, and I think she’ll have more opportunities in the future.

That leaves me with Helen Mirren, who gives the best performance of the five nominees.  She’s riveting as Countess Sofya, Tolstoy’s passionate, headstrong wife, in The Last Station.  Sofya is a complicated, three-dimensional character and Mirren attacks each aspect of her with abandon.  She’s a joy to watch and I especially relished every scene she shared with Christopher Plummer.  When the two of them are on screen, it’s a wonderful film to watch.  Unfortunately, that doesn’t happen often enough and therein lies my problem with handing Mirren the statue.  I don’t think it’s a lead performance. How is it that Plummer is in the Supporting Actor category, while Mirren, who has an equal amount of screen time, is in the lead?  The answer of course is that the studio thought her best shot at a nomination and win was as a lead (while Plummer’s were for supporting), but that doesn’t change the fact that it’s a supporting role.  While James McAvoy’s character was nowhere near as interesting as Sofya and Tolstoy, it was the lead.

In a weak category that fails to ignite much interest from me this year, I would give the Oscar to Mulligan, by just a nose, over Mirren.

So who is your pick?  One of the five or is your alternate someone who wasn’t even nominated?

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From: Ethan
To: Nick

It’s an interesting question–how much, if at all, should we factor potential future performances into whether or not a performer deserves an Oscar for the movie they’re currently nominated for?  I’d like to say that I’m always voting on a specific performance, but I’ve certainly been guilty of playing the “It’s his time now” or “She’ll be nominated again soon” card in the past.  For this year’s Best Actress race, I’m throwing my support entirely behind Sidibe.  Even if she never acts in another movie, her work in Precious is genuinely terrific and, as far as I’m concerned, she creates the most fully realized character of the four nominees.  As charming as Mulligan is in An Education, I’m of the opinion that her performance, like the movie, has been wildly overpraised.  Maybe it’s just because Nick Hornby’s screenplay cuts too many corners, but watching the movie I kept feeling that there were deeper levels to her role that she just wasn’t finding.  I was particularly disappointed by the rushed conclusion, which passed over some juicy dramatic material that might have enhanced her performance.

You touched on my biggest problem with The Last Station–the decision to relegate Leo and Sofya Tolstoy to secondary roles while centering the movie around the character played by James McAvoy.  To be fair, that’s probably how the book the movie is adapted from told the story as well, but c’mon who would you rather be following onscreen, mopey McAvoy or the marvelous Mirren and Plummer?  (I should add that I’m a fan of McAvoy in general, but boy was he handed a thankless part to play, not unlike Zac Efron in Me and Orson Welles.)  Again, I think that both of the nominated actors did their best work in the climactic deathbed scene, the one sequence of the film that I actually found compelling.  Mirren had several other nice moments as well, but overall I wouldn’t rank it as one of her best performances.  Like Damon and Tucci in the Supporting Actor category, I think she nabbed a nomination because the Academy voters just couldn’t think of anyone else to place in that final slot.

Not that those voters are seeking my opinion, but I could have offered a few suggestions starting with Tilda Swinton, who delivered an incredibly intense and raw performance in the little-seen indie film Julia.  Had that film been granted a wider release–or if it the studio that released it had bothered to send bombard the Academy with screeners–I think Swinton would have been a lock for a nomination, though probably not a win.  Also overlooked was Charlotte Gainsbourg, who took on a seemingly impossible role in Lars Von Trier’s future cult classic Antichrist and found a way to ground it in a believable emotional reality.  Last but not least, I’m very surprised that Abby Cornish wasn’t recognized for her very strong work in Bright Star; perhaps voters felt that they could only honor one young ingénue this year and Mulligan took that slot.  If any of these three performers had made the cut, they probably would have been my first choice…although Sidibe might still trump Cornish.

And here’s a question for you–would you have considered Zoe Saldana for Avatar?  James Cameron has made the argument–and in many ways I agree with him–that Saldana delivered as physical and as concentrated a performance as any of the live-action actors up for the statue.  True, her character is “sweetened” by the animators in post-production, but Neytiri’s movements, dialogue and basic facial expressions all stem from the work Saldana was doing on that motion capture stage.  As someone who is still disappointed that the Academy didn’t nominate Andy Serkis for his marvelous portrayal of Gollum, it would have been exciting to see voters recognize motion-capture as a legitimate form of acting.  But it looks like we’re still a couple of years off from that.

As with their male counterparts, I can’t think of many overlooked supporting actresses.  The only one that really stands out is Gwyneth Paltrow from Two Lovers, where she’s playing very much against type and pulls it off beautifully.  Just for shock value, it would have been hilarious to see Anna Faris score a nod for Observe and Report, but that’s the kind of nomination I’ll have to look to the MTV Movie Awards for.

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From: Nick
To: Ethan

I do not think Zoe Saldana deserved to be nominated for her role in Avatar, but not because it was a motion-capture performance.  Motion-capture is a legitimate form of acting and, precisely because it is so new, it’s arguably a more difficult form.  I simply don’t think Saldana’s performance was anything special.  She was fine.  She did what she needed to do, but I don’t think she brought anything extra to an already thinly written role (I actually preferred her as Uhura in last year’s Star Trek).  I’d love to see the Academy recognize a worthy motion-capture performance.  I share your disappointment that Andy Serkis was overlooked for his literally revolutionary performance as Gollum in the Lord of the Rings trilogy. That was a terrific role and a fully realized, three-dimensional character that he infused with life.  There are no characters like that to be found anywhere in Avatar, which is one of my major problems with the film.  We’ll delve into that as we move on to our Best Picture discussion where I think we may finally have some real disagreements.

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The Verdict

Best Actress
Ethan
Will Win: Sandra Bullock
Should Win: Gabourey Sidibe

Nick
Will Win: Sandra Bullock
Should Win: Carey Mulligan

Best Supporting Actress
Ethan
Will Win: Mo’Nique
Should Win: Mo’Nique

Nick
Will Win: Mo’Nique
Should Win: Mo’Nique

Another year, another edition of Oscar Talk featuring myself and my fellow movie-mad pal, Nick Spagnoli.  Read our discussion of the Best Actor and Best Supporting races below.

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges: Crazy Heart
George Clooney: Up in the Air
Colin Firth: A Single Man
Morgan Freeman: Invictus
Jeremy Renner: The Hurt Locker

Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon: Invictus
Woody Harrelson: The Messenger
Christopher Plummer: The Last Station
Stanley Tucci: The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz: Inglorious Basterds

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From: Ethan
To: Nick

Every year, there are generally one or two races that attract the bulk of the attention from those of us that obsessively cover the Oscars.  Last time around, for example, all eyes were on the Best Actor category as comeback kid Mickey Rourke squared off against Sean Penn.  Meanwhile, there was very little buzz surrounding the Best Picture race because it was clear to virtually everyone that Slumdog Millionaire was the runaway winner, especially with The Dark Knight out of the mix.  We’ve got the exact opposite situation this year, with the Avatar vs. The Hurt Locker face-off dominating the awards landscape and driving everyone’s attention to the Best Picture and Best Director categories.  Compared to that–pardon the pun–titanic showdown, the acting races all seem…well boring.  Part of the issue is that the winners in all the categories are so blindingly obvious it feels as if the Academy should just hand out the statues right now and spare us the wait.

That’s particularly the case with the Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor races, where Jeff Bridges and Christoph Waltz are guaranteed to go home with the gold.  In fact, I’m going to say that Supporting Actor is easily 2010’s most boring category.  How boring?  So boring that the Academy essentially gave up trying to pick five worthy performances and threw away two nominations on Matt Damon and Stanley Tucci from Invictus and The Lovely Bones respectively.  Now I like both of these actors, but I can name at least five other roles from each guy that are more interesting and varied than the ones they’ve been nominated for.  (Seriously, in a year where Damon delivered one of his best-ever performances in The Informant! the Academy voted to recognize his bland turn in Invictus???)  At least all five of the Best Actor nominees actually deserve to be there, including Morgan Freeman who really is the only reason to see Clint Eastwood’s otherwise underwhelming take on Nelson Mandela’s legacy.

Now I should mention that I have no objection to Bridges and Waltz’s front-runner status.  Both men do fine work in their respective films, often outclassing the material they’ve been given.  To be honest, I consider Waltz to be the lead actor in Inglorious Basterds; Brad Pitt may be the name above the title, but Waltz dominates the proceedings and his character is central to each one of the movie’s many narrative throughlines in a way that Pitt decidedly isn’t.  But Harvey Weinstein decreed he was a Supporting Actor and that’s where he’s ended up.  Bridges, meanwhile, is the only reason Crazy Heart exists as a theatrical feature at all.  Without someone of his caliber in the role of alcoholic country singer Bad Blake, it’s the kind of script that would have ended up as a movie of the week on Country Music Television.  I actually threw on my screener of Crazy Heart the other night intending to only check out a half-hour or so (mainly to take another look at Maggie Gyllenhaal’s performance, which we’ll talk more about it in our Best Supporting Actress talk), but wound up watching it almost all the way through–fast-forwarding at times I have to admit–entirely because I enjoyed seeing Bridges sing, stumble and drink his way through the movie.  The argument has been advanced that the Academy is opting to honor Bridges for his entire body of work rather than this specific performance and I think there is some truth to that.  After all, Bad Blake isn’t as rich a character as The Dude from The Big Lebowski or Jack Lucas from The Fisher King.  Nevertheless, Bridges is genuinely great in Crazy Heart and if this is the role where the stars align for him to win an Oscar, that’s fine with me.  There have certainly been far worse Liftetime Achievement acting Oscars–Al Pacino for Scene of a Woman, anyone?

Based on the other nominees in their respective categories, I’d also cast my vote (if I had one) for Bridges and Waltz.  However, there are several notable omissions that probably would have changed my mind.  The Academy’s biggest oversight, in my opinion, was not nominating Michael Stuhlbarg for his terrific comic performance in A Serious Man.  His presence is pivotal to the film, bringing an emotional resonance to a character that the Coens clearly have little sympathy for.  I was also a big fan of Michael Sheen’s fiery turn in the little-seen soccer drama The Damned United.  Normally associated with stately turns as public figures like Tony Blair and David Frost, Sheen shows off a whole different set of skills as the brash football coach who can talk the talk, but can’t walk the walk.

I’m having a harder time thinking of overlooked supporting actors, which either confirms how completely Waltz dominated the landscape or proves that this was a weak year for supporting performances (a theory that’s lent further weight by an equally lackluster crop of Supporting Actress contenders).  One name that’s come up a great deal is Peter Capaldi, who played the foul-mouthed Scottish politician in my favorite comedy of the year, In the Loop.  I love Capaldi in that movie, but I consider that more of an ensemble piece; his performance only works as well as it does because he has a crack cast to play off of.  Funnily enough, the only performer that springs to mind is also from Crazy Heart, Colin Farrell.  Watching the movie the other night, I was once again impressed by his low-key presence and seemingly effortless charisma with Bridges.  As far as I’m concerned, Crazy Heart would have been an infinitely better movie had it focused on their relationship instead of the romance between Bridges and Gyllenhall.  Turns out he’s a pretty decent country singer too.

Okay, over to you.  Which Supporting Actors have I overlooked?  Are Waltz and Bridges your first choices as well?  Or am I being unfair to Damon, Tucci and Freeman?

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From: Nick
To: Ethan

Since, yes, Bridges and Waltz are easily my top choices, and since, as you pointed out, it’s pretty much a lock that both will win, I’ll keep my comments on this category brief.

There is one glaring omission in the supporting actor category.  Christian McKay’s bold and charismatic turn as Orson Welles in Me and Orson Welles is one of the best performances I’ve seen all year.  If Waltz weren’t in the running, I’d not only nominate McKay, but give him the award.  The film is engaging, though a bit frustrating and uneven at times, but it comes alive anytime McKay is on screen. It’s a larger than life performance that’s never over the top.  You feel like you’re watching the real Orson Welles, not an impersonation of him.  To make room for McKay, I’d probably bump Damon, though I do think he’s good in Invictus.

Other than that, I don’t have any issues with the other nominees.  All do good work, even if none jump out as particularly outstanding.  Of the rest, I’d probably go with Christopher Plummer’s Leo Tolstoy in The Last Station as my second choice.

On the lead actor side I can’t disagree with you about Michael Stuhlbarg–he does a terrific job in A Serious Man–but there’s no one that I would knock out to make room for him.  This is a very strong category with five solid performances.  Among them, Bridges is easily the standout.  I think the film itself is underrated (I consider Crazy Heart to be one of the best movies of the year) but Bridges is the reason it works as well as it does (along with the music).  Sure, some may say he’s the favorite because he has a lifetime of terrific, overlooked performances, but “Bad” Blake is up there among his best and he is unquestionably deserving of a win for this role.

Among the rest, I don’t have a clear second choice.  Morgan Freeman brings the wise and distinguished presence that we’ve come to expect from him, while finally losing himself in the role in a way that we haven’t seen before.  George Clooney also brings a lot of his persona to Ryan Bingham, but also a nuance that we don’t always get from him.  Just as Bridges elevates Crazy Heart, Clooney’s performance and presence make Up in the Air an infinitely better film.  My #2 is a toss-up between Freeman and Clooney.

Who would you cast your fictitious vote for if not Bridges and Waltz?  Do you agree that McKay was overlooked?

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From: Ethan
To: Nick

Good call on McKay–I somehow managed to completely forget about him, but he absolutely deserves to be among the five nominees (certainly in place of Tucci and/or Damon) and he’d be the only actor I’d be tempted to place above Waltz.  Like you, I wasn’t a huge fan of the movie, but the way he channels Welles without simply doing a Saturday Night Live-style impersonation is really something to see.  And, as with Waltz, I almost want to classify him as the movie’s leading actor since he so thoroughly dominates the proceedings.  Poor Zac Efron all but vanishes off the screen whenever McKay enters the frame.

Of the folks who actually are nominated in the Supporting Actor category, I’d probably agree with you that Christopher Plummer would be my second choice.  In fact, in another year he probably would have won the statue outright since–and I was really surprised to hear this–his first-ever Oscar nomination.  But with Bridges (and likely Sandra Bullock, but we’ll get to her later) already set to win a career achievement Oscar, it’ll be tough for Plummer to ride the same sentimental groundswell.  Also, Waltz has the good fortune of being nominated for a much better film.  For me, The Last Station only really springs to life in the final act, when Plummer and Helen Mirren are given some truly intense drama to play.  And a big part of me feels that Plummer has actually been nominated for the wrong film–as good as he is as Leo Tolstoy in Station, I much preferred his Shakesperean-like star turn in Terry Gilliam’s chaotic, intermittently brilliant carnival, The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus.

It sounds like your a bit more satisfied with the Best Actor category than I am.  Of the five current nominees, the only two that actually excite me are Bridges and Colin Firth, who gives an incredibly moving performance in A Single Man.  I’ve never been a big booster for Firth, but he showed a different side of himself here and his emotional connection to the material helps alleviate some of writer/director Tom Ford’s more pretentious visual flourishes.  If I was going to cast my fictitious vote for anyone besides Bridges, it would be for him.

I don’t really have any major qualms about the three remaining nominees–that would be Clooney, Freeman or The Hurt Locker‘s Jeremy Renner–but none of them really excited me either.  While I agree that Clooney is perfectly cast in Up in the Air, I think the material defeats him in the end.  Like the movie itself, he’s at his best in the lighter scenes, such as that extended bit of flirtation with Vera Farmiga early on.  Once the film starts asking us to view him as a kind of tragic hero, it lost me.  Freeman’s take on Nelson Mandela is very respectful, very admirable and–again, like the movie–rather boring.  I still feel that Clint Eastwood made a big mistake choosing to anchor the story around a rugby match.  While I’m glad they didn’t go the usual biopic route, the material that dealt directly with Mandela’s transition into office was so compelling, I was disappointed to see the movie morph into a generic sports picture halfway through.  Freeman’s performance suffers from the film’s transformation as well; by the last half-hour, he’s reduced to being little more than a cheerleader in the stands.

Last but not least we have Renner, who to me was the most surprising of the nominees, not because he doesn’t do good work in The Hurt Locker, but when I think of that movie the acting is really the last thing that comes to mind.  It doesn’t help that, as written by Mark Boal, the characters are all fairly familiar war movie types–you’ve got the nervous guy (Brian Geraghty), the anal retentive by the book guy (Anthony Mackie) and the crazy daredevil guy (Renner).  Clearly, Renner is a talented guy with a lot of natural charisma, but I don’t see this as a breakthrough performance a la Willem Dafoe in Platoon or Vincent D’Onofrio in Full Metal Jacket.  Ultimately, I’d have no trouble replacing the trio of Clooney, Freeman and Renner with a line-up that included Stuhlbarg, Sheen and Damon (from The Informant!) or Stuhlbarg, Sheen and Plummer (from Parnassus) or Stuhlbarg, Damon and Plummer.

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From: Nick
To: Ethan

It seems like we’re pretty much in agreement on the Supporting Actor side of things.

On the Best Actor side, I am satisfied with the nominees, though I can’t say that I’m all that excited about them either (aside from Bridges).  Firth was easily the best thing about A Single Man.  In a film that was trying much too hard to be Important and Artistic, Firth did his best to keep it emotionally engaging.  Last year I had a hard time pulling for Kate Winslet (one of my favorite actresses) because I thought her film was so awful.  Similarly, I have a hard time working up much enthusiasm for Firth because I’m not a fan of his movie (though A Single Man is a much better film than The Reader).  I should judge on the performance alone, but ideally, a good performance will be in the service of a good film.

I’m a bigger fan of Up in the Air than you are, and I think Clooney shines even as the script turns more serious.  I’ll save my comments on the film itself for the Best Picture discussion, but take a look at his subtle, but telling reactions to two of the more stinging lines that he absorbs in the film (when told by his sister that he basically doesn’t exist to his family and later when he’s told that he’s a parenthesis).  He is slowly being beat down and Clooney shows the pain and struggle beautifully. I’ve also already talked a bit about Freeman and think he’s deserving of the nod, but I agree with you that there’s not much for him to do by the end of film (which I found so disappointing because until the final half hour, Invictus is exceptionally good).

If I had to bump someone off the list, I would have to go with Renner.  I think he does a wonderful job in the film, but I agree with you that the acting is not what makes The Hurt Locker so engrossing.  The star of that film is director Kathryn Bigelow…more on her later.  If you wanted to swap him out for Stuhlbarg or Damon (terrific in Steven Soderbergh’s underrated The Informant!) I wouldn’t complain.  But for the most part, I think the Academy got it right this year.

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The Verdict

Best Actor
Ethan
Will Win: Jeff Bridges
Should Win: Jeff Bridges

Nick
Will Win: Jeff Bridges
Should Win: Jeff Bridges

Best Supporting Actor
Ethan
Will Win: Christoph Waltz
Should Win: Christoph Waltz

Nick
Will Win: Christoph Waltz
Should Win: Christoph Waltz