Due to a variety of circumstances, NYCFilmCritic’s annual Oscar Talk back-and-forth took a year off, but I’ll still be tuning in to the Academy Awards this Sunday night to see how Hollywood divvies up this year’s bounty of little gold men.  In many ways, it’ll be a relief to have the Oscars over and done with–most of the big races appear to be set in stone and have been that way at least since mid-January.  That said, there’s still the potential for an upset or two.  My own predictions are below.  Check back on Monday* to see how I fared–here’s hoping I top my last year’s personal worst of 14 out of 24.

*Updated: Well, I definitely succeeded in topping last year’s poor showing.  Unfortunately it was with an even poorer showing–I struck out big time, only calling 9 out of 24 races correctly.  What can I say?  I got blindsided by the Alice in Wonderland juggernaut early on (namely because I actually saw the movie and had no idea why anyone would nominate it for anything) and never recovered.  About the only thing I did right was sticking with Inception for most of the technical awards and The Fighter duo of Christian Bale and Melissa Leo in the Supporting Actor categories.  Otherwise…yikes.  Nothing but net across the board.  Well, congrats to all the winners (yes, even you King’s Speech–you weren’t my favorite film of the lot, but you’re certainly no Crash or Gladiator) and here’s hoping I do better next year.  I mean, I couldn’t possibly do worse, right?  (Don’t answer that.)

Picture
Will Win: The King’s Speech
Should Win: The Social Network
Did Win: The King’s Speech

Director
Will Win: David Fincher
Should Win: David Fincher
Did Win: Tom Hooper

Actor
Will Win: Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)
Should Win: James Franco (127 Hours)
Did Win: Colin Firth

Actress
Will Win: Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)
Should Win: Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)
Did Win: Natalie Portman

Supporting Actress
Will Win: Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
Should Win: Amy Adams (The Fighter)
Did Win: Melissa Leo

Supporting Actor
Will Win: Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Should Win: Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Did Win: Christian Bale

Original Screenplay
Will Win: Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg (The Kids are All Right)
Should Win: Christopher Nolan (Inception)
Did Win: The King’s Speech

Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Aaron Sorkin (The Social Network)
Should Win: Joel and Ethan Coen (True Grit)
Will Win: The Social Network

Animated Feature
Will Win: Toy Story 3
Should Win: The Illusionist
Did Win: Toy Story 3

Documentary
Will Win: Restrepo
Should Win: Exit Through the Gift Shop
Did Win: Inside Job

Foreign Language Film
Will Win: Incendies
Should Win: I’ve only seen two of the five–Biutiful and Dogtooth–and I’d easily pick the latter over the former.  But one of the other three could prove superior.
Did Win: In A Better World

Art Direction
Will Win: The King’s Speech
Should Win: Inception
Did Win: Alice in Wonderland

Cinematography
Will Win: Roger Deakins (True Grit)
Should Win: Roger Deakins (True Grit)
Did Win: Inception

Costume Design
Will Win: I Am Love
Should Win: I Am Love
Did Win: Alice in Wonderland

Editing
Will Win: The King’s Speech
Should Win: The Social Network
Did Win: The Social Network

Makeup
Will Win: The Way Back
Should Win: The Way Back
Did Win: The Wolfman

Music (Original Score)
Will Win: The King’s Speech
Should Win: The Social Network
Did Win: The Social Network

Music (Original Song)
Will Win: Tangled
Should Win: Tangled
Did Win: Toy Story 3

Visual Effects
Will Win: Inception
Should Win: Inception
Did Win: Inception

Sound Editing
Will Win: Inception
Should Win: Inception
Did Win: Inception

Sound Mixing
Will Win: Inception
Should Win: Inception
Did Win: Inception

Short Film (Animated)
Will Win: The Lost Thing
Should Win: I loved the Pixar short Day & Night, but haven’t seen any of the others so no idea if it definitely deserves to win.
Did Win: The Lost Thing

Short Film (Live Action)
Will Win: Na Wewe
Should Win: N/A
Did Win: God of Love

Short Film (Documentary)
Will Win: The Warriors of Qiugang
Should Win: N/A
Did Win: Strangers No More